Posture and p-hacking

Joseph Reagle

Our question(s)

Amy Cuddy

What did Cuddy conclude?

  • Two minutes of “power posing” can:
    • increase testosterone, decrease cortisol,
    • feeling “more powerful” and “in charge,” and
    • increase appetite for risk [i.e., given $2, roll dice for $0|$4].

How did she communicate this?

“Free no-tech life hack”

The personal anecdote

Fake it until you become it

Share with underprivileged

Guru analysis??

TED talks

“A journey of persuasion, discovery, or investigation.”

Pat Kelly: Thought leader

Lindsey Quinn: A journey

How should (social) science be popularized?

Reproducibility crisis

“A new study found…”

What is the p-value?

It’s the probability that the null hypothesis is true. The smaller the value, the safer we are in rejecting the null hypothesis.

Is most research wrong?

The crisis

Researching findings can’t be reproduced because:

My generation and the one before us have done little to rein these in. (Bishop 2019)

Evolving field

my field evolves as new evidence replicates some effects and not others. The key power posing effect has been replicated at least nine times, even in Ranehill and colleagues’ well-powered study with 200 participants. Yet the Ranehill study did not replicate the hormone shifts and risk-taking effects. My scientific evaluation of the various effects will update as new information comes in. (Cuddy 2016)

What remains of the findings?

ex. Find & share suspect research-based self-help advice

Why is it suspect—even if not quackery?

The problem of expertise

What does the reproducibility crisis mean for expertise?

Who should we get advice from?

Conclusion

What to make of Cuddy?

If Amy Cuddy is a victim, she may not seem an obvious one: She has real power, a best-selling book, a thriving speaking career. She did not own up fully to problems in her research or try to replicate her own study… But many of her peers told me that she did not deserve the level of widespread and sometimes vicious criticism she has endured. “Amy has been the target of mockery and meanness on Facebook, on Twitter, in blog posts — I feel like, Wow, I have never seen that in science,” Van Bavel says. (Dominus 2017)

Where is Cuddy now??

Wrap up

Write a “3-minute paper” (bullets are fine) answering today’s class questions.

Review

  1. What are the 4 contributing factors to the reproducibility crisis?
  2. What are some of the features of the guru TED talk?
  3. What is a recent example of self-help based on popularized research?
  4. Can even research-based self-help be suspect?
  5. What can go wrong with science’s popularization?