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Revising_Opinions

back to [[Statistical Theory]] -- [[Applied Statistics]]

Researchers who use [[Personal Probability]] can proceed as follows:
#A [[Statistical Model]] for the data generating process is assumed. The model might specify that the data follows a normal distribution with an unknown mean. 
#The researcher describes his opinion about the unknown mean as having a [[Normal Distribution]] centered at 10 with a [[Standard Deviation]] of 2. This would be called the researcher's '''prior''' distribution for the mean.
#With the [[Likelihood Function]] of the observed data and the probabilistic description of his opinion, the researcher can calculate (using [[Bayes Theorem]]) the appropriate opinion consistent with both sources of information. This is called the '''posterior''' distribution.
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[[Dick Beldin]]